Confidential Campaign Strategy Document

Ahsanul Hafiz

Liberal Candidate for MPP, Scarborough Southwest

"Let's Lead Together"

Provincial by-election: Summer 2026
Scarborough Southwest (096)
87,200 registered voters

Executive Summary

A community-rooted outsider campaign built on credibility, immigrant success, and local representation.

AH

Ahsanul Hafiz

Liberal Nomination Winner • Vice-Chair, LPC Ontario • Entrepreneur

Bangladeshi-Canadian entrepreneur and organizer with deep community ties. His nomination win over an establishment favourite shows he can mobilize voters, build momentum, and turn grassroots energy into victory.

"I came to Canada with a dream. I built businesses, created jobs, and now I want to build a better Scarborough Southwest together."
Ahsanul Hafiz, nomination victory remarks, May 9, 2026
69.6% Federal Liberal by-election result
Won Nomination result
22.94% Provincial Liberal baseline
45% Immigrant population
Strategic Advantage

The nomination win proves electability. The federal Liberal result proves the Liberal brand can dominate here when paired with authentic community representation.

Recent Results Snapshot

Federal strength and provincial opportunity define the opening map.

Party Candidate Votes Percent Status
LPC Doly Begum 17,045 69.60% Winner
NDP Doly Begum 15,234 42.89% Winner
OLP Ontario Liberal candidate 8,145 22.94% Baseline
Key Insight

The campaign must hold federal Liberal voters, convert Doly's personal supporters, and grow turnout among immigrant and working-family voters.

Target Communities

The coalition is multilingual, immigrant-heavy, and turnout-sensitive.

Bangladeshi Community

A core organizing base. Bengali-language outreach, mosque engagement, family networks, and local business connections can drive turnout.

Tamil, Chinese, Hindi, and Filipino Voters

Multilingual materials and direct outreach through trusted community organizations are required to convert familiarity into votes.

Working Families and Newcomers

Affordability, jobs, rent, transit, healthcare, and school access should anchor the message.

Battleground Polls

These are the neighbourhoods where persuasion and turnout determine the by-election.

Poll Our share Opponent share Margin Priority Action
Ionview 35.4% 38.3% -2.9% Critical Target soft Conservatives with cost-of-living, safety, and business credibility.
Warden Woods 34.8% 41.1% -6.3% Critical Win over former NDP supporters through affordability and trusted local validators.
Scarborough Junction 35.2% 42.2% -7.0% Critical Lead with transit, renter concerns, newcomer outreach, and visible ground activity.
Kennedy Park 39.0% 30.7% +8.3% High Maximize Bengali turnout through personal relationships and community leadership.

Neighbourhood Strategy

Each area needs its own organizing frame and field tactics.

Warden Woods

Focus on affordability, rent pressure, and door-to-door outreach in Bengali, Tamil, and Tagalog.

Scarborough Junction

Use transit, settlement services, and renter messaging to reach newcomers and progressive persuadables.

Ionview

Lean into entrepreneurship, family security, and household cost relief for South Asian homeowners.

Birchcliffe and Oakridge

These are base-turnout zones. Focus on signs, calls, repeat contact, and strong election-day organization.

Pathway to Victory

A winning coalition can be built from five disciplined vote streams.

1

Hold the Liberal base

Protect core neighbourhoods and convert known supporters into committed votes.

2

Win back former NDP voters

Make the case that practical local leadership matters more than old partisan habits.

3

Expand South Asian turnout

Use Bengali, Tamil, and Hindi community relationships to drive persuasion and turnout.

4

Mobilize newcomers

Translate the platform, show up in community spaces, and make the campaign visible and accessible.

5

Own the transit message

Turn daily commute frustration into support through a simple, local, concrete transit pitch.

Campaign Timeline

A 35-day structure focused on voter identification, persuasion, and final-week turnout.

May 9, 2026

Nomination victory

Defeat the establishment favourite and consolidate the grassroots coalition.

Days 1-14

Launch and voter identification

Knock doors, grow volunteers, and build multilingual voter contact capacity.

Days 15-28

Persuasion phase

Target undecideds with neighbourhood-specific messages, endorsements, and local events.

Days 29-35

Get-out-the-vote

Pull every supporter, staff the polls, and push advance voting hard.

Leadership Narrative

The campaign story can scale from a local win to a broader Ontario leadership frame.

"Ontario Liberals need renewal from the grassroots, not from the establishment. I built a life here, built businesses, created jobs, and now I want to rebuild trust in public life together."
Leadership messaging framework

Strengths

Outsider credibility, immigrant success story, business experience, party organizing knowledge, and strong GTA community roots.

Challenges

Province-wide name recognition, fundraising scale, policy depth, and the need to broaden appeal beyond Scarborough.